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Innovation Value Institute
Innovation Value Institute
  • What We Do
    • Are You Ready for the AI Revolution?
    • Our Services
    • Knowledge Building
    • Success Stories
  • How We Work
    • Collaborative Research
    • Research Projects
  • Knowledge Hub
    • Our Frameworks
    • Video Library
    • IVI Publications
  • Who We Are
    • Meet Our Team
    • Our Community
  • News & Events
  • Become a Member


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info@ivi.ie
+353 1 708 6931

Project

Bias-Corrected Climate Projections Using Different Statistical Methods

Bias-Corrected Climate Projections Using Different Statistical Methods
Home / Bias-Corrected Climate Projections Using Different Statistical Methods

This research project evaluates the near-surface air temperature over different European case studies, using Global Climate Model (GCM) projections at 9 km resolution, ERA5-Land reanalysis data, multi-station observations and bias-corrected projections. The analysis is designed to support GCM selection for regional climate applications and proceeds in three stages. First, GCM reference simulations for 1985-2014 are evaluated against ERA5-Land reanalysis at the same spatial resolution to assess large-scale temporal consistency and mean climate behaviour. Second, GCM and reanalysis temperatures are extracted at the nearest grid point to multiple observing stations and compared against monthly station observations to quantify local-scale performance and spatial representativeness. Third, bias-corrected GCM projections are evaluated over the overlapping observational period 2015-2025 to assess near-term model behaviour under future forcing. Climate model performance is measured against ERA5-Land reanalysis and observational data and is quantified using root mean square error, mean bias error, correlation and other metrics at monthly and annual timescales, complemented by seasonal diagnostics, percentile-based analyses of temperature extremes, and assessments of bias stability across sub-periods.

PhD researcher

Marina Antoniadou Marina Antoniadou
GoGreenNext

Supervisory team

Dr. Tadhg E. MacIntyre Dr. Tadhg E. MacIntyre
Associate Professor, Environmental Psychology

In partnership with

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+353 1 708 6931

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